The Tampa Bay housing market slowed in August. But is this part of normal seasonal decline or other impacts affecting the local housing market?
Seasonally, sales tend to fall slightly in August versus July. It is also typical for sales to continue to drop over the coming months and have a slight pickup in December. Closed sales dropped 9% month-over-month in Pinellas and 18% in Hillsborough County. However, prices remained stable.
When looking at year-over-year sales data, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties recorded fewer sales, fewer new contracts, and decreased inventory.
So… the answer to the question is BOTH. The market has slowed due to normal seasonal decline and other factors. This month’s Market Update will unwrap all of this information. It will also provide you with the information you need, whether you’re watching your equity, in the process of buying a home, or trying to figure out the best time to sell your home
Important Takeaways:
The number one question homeowners are asking is, “How much is my home really worth?” This is a question about equity, not about preparation to sell.
For homeowners watching their equity, August’s price figures need some interpretation. Pinellas County’s single-family median sale price rose 6.9% year over year to $464,950. Hillsborough’s was nearly flat at $419,900, down 0.8%. The median price changes when the mix of homes sold changes. Median price for the county does not tell you exactly what happened to your home’s value, but it does provide a pulse on the market.
Because new construction seems to be filling up every vacant lot in Tampa Bay, you might be curious to know how it affects your property value.
We took a look at non-waterfront and waterfront single-family sales in St. Petersburg and Tampa. The data shows homes built in 2020 or later sold for substantially more than homes built in 2019 or earlier, but the newer homes were also much larger.
City | Median sale price: built 2020+ | Median sale price: built through 2019 | Median sold price per sq. ft.: built 2020+ | Median sold price per sq. ft.: built through 2019 |
St. Petersburg | $995,000 | $400,000 | $397.53 | $313.71 |
Tampa | $867,500 | $430,000 | $348.57 | $276.16 |
Our research showed that newer homes sold for approximately 24-27% more per square foot in St. Petersburg and Tampa. That is an interesting difference, but it is not a valuation formula. New construction home prices can differ by neighborhood, lot, finishes, and condition. If you own an older home, a sale of a much larger, newer home nearby may be useful context without being your best comparable sale.
An estimate of your home’s value starts with recent sales of properties that buyers would reasonably compare with yours. Location, size, age, condition, improvements, flood exposure, and current competing listings all matter. If you would like to know your property’s value, reach out to The Tenpenny Collection for a free comprehensive analysis.
The #1 question buyers are asking: “Where are mortgage rates going, and should I wait?”
The #1 Realtor and Mortgage broker answer: “Wait for what”
In February, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.99%! By August 31st, the mortgage rate was 6.89%. As of September 29, Mortgage News Daily reported an average mortgage rate of 7.58%.
What is interesting is that some prominent analyst are now changing their predictions. In September 2025, Fannie Mae forecast that rates would end 2026 at 5.9%. Its September 2026 forecast instead projects a fourth-quarter average of 6.8%.
However, the year is not over. In September, the Fed raised the rates for the first time in over 3 years. J.P. Morgan expects the Fed to raise rates another quarter-point in December.
Predictions are not playing out as predicted, primarily because life isn’t predictable. The changing forecast shows why even well-informed analysts cannot tell buyers exactly when to make a move.
Which begs the question: should you wait to buy a home? It is more important for you to determine if the home works for you at today’s full monthly cost. Include the mortgage payment, property taxes, insurance, association fees if applicable, and expected maintenance. Consider how long you expect to live in the home. If the numbers work today and the home fits your longer-term plans, now might be the right opportunity for you.
Typically, home prices are approximately 7-10% lower compared to the summer hot months. A 10% savings in home price can actually make a 7.5% interest rate less expensive! Below is a breakdown of how these numbers play out.
If you are ready to buy a home and the monthly payment makes sense, reach out to The Tenpenny Collection to discuss your options.
Housing costs can change even when your mortgage payment does not. There is some encouraging insurance news: Citizens says its approved 2026 rates reduce homeowners multiperil rates by an 8.8% statewide average, with the change reaching existing policyholders at renewal. An individual premium may differ, so review your renewal and compare available coverage and quotes.
There is another specific change to check. The Florida Insurance Guaranty Association’s 1% emergency assessment ends September 30. New and renewal policies effective October 1, 2026, or later should no longer include that assessment. Check the itemized charges on your next policy; the removal of this assessment does not guarantee that your total premium will decline.
Florida homeowners should also take a close look at Amendment 3, or HJR 1-F, before the November election. If voters approve it, the proposal could lower certain property taxes for qualifying homesteaded owners. The potential savings depend on the property’s assessed value and the taxing authorities on its bill. Our Amendment 3 explainer uses a real tax bill to show why savings differ from one property to another.
For St. Petersburg property owners, a second local ballot question also matters. Voters will decide whether the city may issue up to $600 million in general obligation bonds to accelerate stormwater, wastewater, and drinking water improvements. If approved, the bonds would be repaid through property taxes. The city estimates a cost of approximately $96 per year for each $100,000 of taxable value. It is a separate decision from Amendment 3, with implications for both household costs and the pace of flood resilience projects.
August’s slower sales are real. So is the decline in inventory. Looking at either one alone gives an incomplete picture of the Tampa Bay market.
Here is what we know to be true: Shelter is a necessity in life. People always need to buy a home. People always need to sell a home. Timing the market doesn’t fall into the “need equation”. Even when the number of transactions drop, it never falls to zero.
If you are staying in your home, you do not need a monthly county median to tell you whether your investment is sound. Keep track of the sales that genuinely compare with your property, maintain it well, and review costs such as insurance and taxes. If you are considering a remodel project or a move, a property-specific valuation can help you decide whether the numbers work before you commit.
For buyers, I would make the same distinction between planning and predicting. We can calculate what a home would cost you today. We can examine its condition and the competition around it. We cannot promise a future mortgage rate. Make the decision with the numbers you can verify, and leave room in your budget for the costs of owning the home.