The Tampa Bay housing market 2026 is starting to warm up, and I am not just talking about the weather.
This month we are focused on 3 main topics:
Spring is typically when we see more activity in our market, and this year is no different (btw, Spring just started March 21st). After a couple of slower, flat years, the first quarter of 2026 is showing some signs of life. A few more buyers are out, a few more homes are going under contract, and pricing seems to be holding steady.
Sales activity jumped nearly 30% from February to March across Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. This may seem very promising, but it is also normal seasonality.
In Q1 of 2026, there were 3.35% fewer homes sold, which makes sense because new listings are down nearly 10% compared to last year. If you’re driving around, it might feel like more homes are on the market, but the opposite is true. Fewer homeowners are listing, which has caused inventory to contract at the local, state, and national levels. Inventory is especially tight for move-in ready homes, which is exactly what buyers want and there simply are not enough of them.
It is still a seller’s market. Simply put, there aren’t enough homes to meet demand. Actually, there is a 3.7 million household deficit. This is the root cause of strained affordability. It is the simple law of supply and demand.
Whether you are planning to move this year or not, this matters. Your home is likely one of your largest assets, and what is happening in the market directly impacts your equity and your long-term financial position.
If you are a homeowner, here is what you need to know. Your home is still performing.
In Pinellas County, prices are up about 5.8% over last year. However, fewer homes have sold, which is what happens when inventory drops. Fewer options mean less competition.
In March alone:
On the surface, it may feel like things have slowed down. Underneath, values are still holding.
If you’re selling your home, it is important to understand what today’s buyers value most. This will help you make smarter decisions when it comes to maintaining or improving your home’s equity.
Buyers today want:
Below is a chart of the top 5 best remodeling projects that bring you the highest return on investment.
For many homeowners, understanding where buyers are placing value is not just about resale. It is also about recognizing how today’s market conditions may create opportunities on the buying side.
If you are considering updates to your home, making the right improvements matters. We are always available to help you think through those decisions, identify what will have the greatest impact on your value, and connect you with trusted vendors to get the work done right.
Pricing a home right now is not easy. We do not always have enough comparable sales to clearly define value.
But I can tell you what does not work. Testing the market.
If a home’s price doesn’t align with its value, buyers will not engage. The goal is to position the home as a smart purchase from day one. A smart purchase shows value. The price has to make sense when you take into consideration comparable sales, amenities, upgrades, and lifestyle. If the price does not align with value, the lack of activity will be your sign.
If you’re buying a home, making a stupid purchase decision is the last thing you want. I believe this is the underlying biggest concern of all buyers right now, no matter the price point.
Buying a house not only means having a place to live. It is also a major financial decision to purchase a large asset. We want to help you make sure you make the smartest decision possible.
First, determine how long you think you will live in the home. Look at the comparable sales in the neighborhood. Are things trending up, down, or staying flat? The typical rule of thumb for price appreciation is a 3-4% year over year appreciation. With ups and downs in the market, the longer you stay in the home, the more likely you are to have greater appreciation.
Next, determine your wants (nice to have), needs (must haves), and what you want to avoid.
Lastly, be prepared. Contrary to popular belief, there are fewer homes available for sale now than there were last year. Add in your wants & needs of a home, and you will find even fewer options. If you see something that matches your criteria, you need to be ready to make an offer. You don’t have to jump, but you need to be prepared.
So far this year, homes that went under contract in the first 15 days have ended up selling at or just below the list price (99%). This means you have competition for nice move-in-ready homes. If it comes on the market and meets your criteria, then you need to be prepared to write and offer.
To help put things in perspective, the average days to contract in Tampa Bay is currently 75.
These homes are selling for an average of 96% list price/sales price. Or, in other words, a $600,000 home that sits on the market for 75 days will probably sell for 4% ($24,000) less, or $576,000.
If you need help preparing, evaluating a property, understanding costs, or just want a second opinion before you move forward, we are always here to walk through it with you.
Townhomes continue to be one of the most overlooked opportunities right now.
In Hillsborough County, the average townhome is around $381K compared to $537K for a single-family home. That is a significant difference. In Pinellas, it is about a 17% gap.
Most buyers say they want a single-family home, but when you really dig in, many of them do not want the maintenance that comes with it. People are busy with jobs, family, hobbies, etc., and do not have the time, patience, or know-how for the long honey-do list a single-family home requires.
Unfortunately, HOAs have gotten a bad rap over the years. In reality, HOAs are GREAT! Not only do they maintain property values, but they also take care of all the exterior maintenance for you. HOA fees are often less expensive because of group pricing. If you are buying a property, expand your criteria and give HOAs a shot. Review the Rules & Regulations to make sure it fits for your needs. If you need assistance reviewing the condo docs, financials, etc, give us a call, and we will assist you.
On another note, we have seen a strong renewed interest in homes with charm and character. New construction has the “wow” factor, but many buyers are starting to realize it does not always feel like home. Buyers are seeking homes with original character, yet the conveniences needed for today’s lifestyle and functionality.
Your bottom line is what matters most, whether you are buying, selling, or staying put.
The cost of owning a home is not just the purchase price. Insurance, taxes, and maintenance all play a role, and in Florida, insurance is still one of the biggest variables.
Many of us know to shop our car insurance every year, thanks to great marketing from the car insurance companies. However, most people do not do the same with their home, but they should.
I recently worked with a homeowner who was paying $12,000 a year in homeowners’ insurance. After connecting them with a local insurance agent, they were able to cut their bill in half! Not only is it saving them a tremendous amount of money annually, it also makes their property more appealing to a buyer down the road.
In my personal townhome community, we saw a 19% reduction in insurance costs. We took these savings and passed them on to the residents by lowering the monthly HOA fees.
There is a real opportunity here if you take the time to look. If you have not reviewed your insurance policy recently, it is worth doing. If you want a second opinion, we can connect you with insurance agents who are actively helping people reduce costs and clean up their coverage. Reach out to us, and we will connect you with the right insurance agents to lower your costs.
There is also a legislative change worth noting. The 1% emergency assessment on insurance policies is ending early on October 1, 2026. It is not a full solution, but it is a step in the right direction.
This market is may feel difficult because it has shifted so much over the past 6 years. Understanding what is different, what is working, and what doesn’t work is how I have helped so many homeowners and buyers for over 23 years.
The market constantly shifts. Prediction markets are the new trend and everyone is trying to predict what home prices will do. But real estate isn’t predictable, unfortunately. Life isn’t predictable, no matter how hard we try.
If there is one thing I would want you to take away from this, it is this:
Buyers are not buying your home. They are buying theirs.
If they cannot see themselves living in it, whether it is the layout, presentation, condition, or cost, then they are not making an offer.
Sellers who are prepared and realistic are doing well. Sellers who are not are sitting longer, dropping their price, and praying for a miracle.
Buyers are still out there, but they are not chasing homes. They are making smart decisions. No one wants to be seen as making a stupid decision in any market. Presenting your property as the smartest choice is key.
If you are thinking about making a move, making improvements, or just want to understand where you stand, we are always here to help you think it through.