The Tampa Bay real estate market in August 2025 is sending a chill through buyers and sellers alike. In parts of Pinellas County, average home prices have dropped by as much as 34% year-over-year.
You might expect buyers to rush in, but instead, the market has gone quiet. This “quiet luxury” market presents opportunities for those who are ready to act. Historical data show that the spring housing season in Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties consistently brings increased competition and higher prices. However, right now is when the best deals are hiding in plain sight.
The Market Is Quiet, Not Crashing
Pinellas County home prices fell 14% YOY, but the sharpest drops came from flood-zone properties. Hillsborough County prices actually rose 5.4%, showing resilience.
Affordability Is Improving
Buyers benefit from lower mortgage rates, declining insurance premiums, and early signs of property tax reform, creating the best buying conditions in years.
Fall & Winter = Buyer Advantage
Historically, home prices in Tampa Bay are 5–6% lower in fall/winter than in spring/summer, when competition and sales volume rise sharply.
Preparation Matters for Sellers
Well-prepared and strategically marketed homes sell faster and closer to list price — even in a softening market — proving presentation is everything.
Our brokerage recently put a property under contract in the mid-$500,000s. Just last year, a nearly identical home sold for over $700,000. That’s a 20% drop in just over a year.
According to MLS data, average sales prices in Pinellas County fell 14% in August 2025 compared to last year. At the same time, mortgage rates are improving. In July 2024, rates hovered near 7%. As of September 15, 2025, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was only 6.13% – but this is the average. Well-qualified buyers can secure a rate as low as 5.8%.
That’s a $1,000 monthly savings — proof that affordability is improving.
Many buyers delay until spring, but market data tells a different story for the Tampa–St. Pete–Clearwater real estate market:
For buyers, the fall and winter months are the best time to purchase a home in Florida.
Property insurance has been a major affordability issue in Florida. However, reforms are showing real impact:
The 2022 Florida insurance reforms also brought the My Safe Florida Home Program. This program provides up to $10,000 to help homeowners cover the costs of replacing and upgrading their roofs, windows, and doors. These improvements lower the risk of storm damage and can cut insurance premiums significantly.
👉 Learn more: My Safe Florida Home Program
Governor Ron DeSantis has floated the idea of eliminating property taxes. Still, more realistically, the Florida House Select Committee on Property Taxes is exploring reforms and has stated that “everything is on the table”. This type of open-minded approach is needed to create the best solution moving forward.
Some residents in Tampa Bay have already seen a significant reduction in their property taxes. Homes that flooded during last year’s devastating storm have seen their property taxes reduced by 15-20%. A past client of mine reached out recently to let me know their property taxes were reduced by 26%!
Year over year, the average sales price for homes in flood zones dropped 34%. This is a significant decline, but remember — these numbers represent averages. Not all properties in flood zones experienced flooding during Hurricane Helene, so not every property is facing the same challenges.
The steepest price cuts are coming from flood-damaged homes now selling at land value. For opportunistic buyers, this decline has created an entry point into waterfront living that was previously out of reach.
One example: we recently helped a client purchase a waterfront home in Patrician Point for $630,000. Last year, similar homes in the same neighborhood sold for around $1.1 million.
So, what do these numbers mean for the broader Tampa Bay market? As mentioned above, Pinellas County’s average sales price fell 14% year-over-year. But is this a true market crash, or lingering effects from a devastating hurricane? Let’s break it down:
It’s also worth noting the differences in market structure:
The contrast is clear. Hillsborough experienced far less hurricane damage last year, and its housing market is showing steady resilience.
This context is important. National headlines won’t tell you this story because national analysts don’t understand Tampa Bay’s local market conditions. What looks like a crash on paper is actually a recovery in progress.
For sellers in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, preparation is critical. In August 2025:
At The Tenpenny Collection, we like to say we don’t just list your home, we debut it. That means we treat every property like it deserves its own spotlight, with careful preparation and presentation designed to capture buyers’ attention in today’s competitive market.
Pre-listing preparation is not optional. It’s essential! A home must look and feel inviting to the modern buyer if it’s going to stand out.
We recently took over a property that had been sitting on the market with another brokerage for more than 4 months with no offers. After debuting it under our approach, the home went under contract in just 7 days, without lowering the price.
How did we do it? We rolled up our sleeves and reimagined the property.
These changes weren’t superficial; instead, they completely altered the way buyers experienced the property. In a declining market, strategy and presentation matter more than ever. It’s not just about putting a “For Sale” sign in the yard; it’s about creating an emotional connection that motivates buyers to act. That’s the Tenpenny difference.
If you’re thinking about selling your home, we’ve put together a Seller’s Guide to Selling Your Home in Tampa Bay with the essentials you need to know to prepare, price, and market your property effectively.
The online guide will get you started, but it’s just the beginning. For the full version of our Seller’s Guide — with detailed strategies, checklists, and insider tips we use to get homes sold faster and for more money — reach out to us directly. We’ll be happy to send it your way and walk you through the steps that will make your home stand out, even in a challenging market.
This quiet market won’t last. The combination of lower prices, easing mortgage rates, and improving insurance conditions has created a rare moment of opportunity for buyers. By spring, competition will return, and with it, higher prices.
For sellers, the lesson is clear: success in today’s market comes from preparation, presentation, and partnering with a team that knows how to position your home for maximum impact. Even in a shifting market, the right strategy can mean the difference between sitting on the sidelines or moving forward with confidence.
Whether you’re buying or selling, the Tampa Bay market is not crashing — it’s recalibrating. Those who act now, before the crowd returns, will be in the strongest position to benefit when the market heats up again.