Tariffs, inflation, and the stock market—it’s in every headline.
But how does all of this affect the Tampa Bay real estate market? Many are speculating, but the truth is, it’s too soon to tell.
In this month’s Tampa Bay Market Update, we highlight the segments of the market most impacted by stock market volatility. Plus, we break down the numbers and the stories behind them to help you understand what’s selling, what’s not, and how to protect your investment.
Active Listings
• 3,709 homes for sale (↑ 10% from February)
• Median list price: $549,000
• Average list price: $908,629
Pending Sales
• 1,205 homes under contract
• Median price: $490,000
• Average price: $669,876
Closed Sales
• 993 homes sold (↑ 24% from February)
• Median sale price: $436,000
• Average sale price: $579,827
• Top Sale: A 2015-built waterfront home in Clearwater, originally listed for $14M in August 2023. After multiple price reductions and two Realtors, it sold in March for $7.2M.
Active Listings
• 4,441 homes for sale (↑ 7% from February)
• Median list price: $495,000
• Average list price: $745,768
Pending Sales
• 1,919 homes under contract
• Median price: $429,900
• Average price: $563,863
Closed Sales
• 1,364 homes sold (↑ 30% from February)
• Median sale price: $420,000
• Average sale price: $543,466
• Top Sale: A historic 1925 waterfront home in Beach Park, originally listed for $8M in June 2024. Sold for land value at $6M.
Our Tampa Bay real estate market appears healthy and here is why…
The average sales price in Tampa Bay dropped 3% from February to March, and is down nearly 7% compared to a year ago. Pinellas County is weighing down the averages. The average sales price dropped 10% in Pinellas County year-over-year (more about that below). It was only down 3.5% in Hillsborough County.
The median sales price in Tampa has stayed flat at $420,000. In the St. Pete-Clearwater area, the median price ($436,000) dropped 5.7% year-over-year. Comparatively, the national median sales price in the US is $398,400.
The slight drop in prices does not worry me. Honestly, it is needed after home prices nearly doubled between 2020 – 2022. This slight price decrease after a few years of stagnation has brought home buyers back into the market.
The average home sold in March was a 3-bedroom, 2-bath with 1900SF for $550,000.
These properties were on the market approximately 50-60 days before going under contract and sold for 97% of the list price.
Many analysts boast about homeowners being in a good position. They have equity and very low interest rates. However, most of the homes I show were purchased at the height of the market when inventory was scarce and buyers overpaid for homes. These buyers were rushed into a decision and now regret the choice they made with limited options.
Home buyers now have more time to make smart choices and they are taking their time! Buyers will view a home 2-3 times, do all of the research, review the disclosures, and look at the comparable sales, before making an offer. It is a sign of a healthy market when buyers can do their homework before purchasing their most substantial asset.
In March, 28% more homes sold as compared to February. This is a substantial month-over-month increase compared to the 18% jump from February to March of 2024. Nationally, we aren’t seeing these month-over-month sales gains yet. The spring market is just warming up in many states.
The rate of sold properties outpaced the number of new listings added to the market. This is needed to keep inventory at a healthy level.
In Pinellas County, there are 48% more homes available compared to one year ago! Active inventory is up 12.5% compared to pre-pandemic numbers (March 2019).
Hillsborough County has 31% more available inventory compared to March 2024. However, the greater Tampa area still has fewer homes on the market compared to pre-pandemic years. There are 4.5% fewer listings available as compared to March 2019.
Move-in-Ready homes. However, move-in-ready means different things for different people. Let’s define the expectations of today’s homebuyers and how it is impacting our market.
In the past, sellers were skeptical about making cosmetic updates because they thought the buyer would want to customize the home themselves. Instead, the seller would reduce the price or offer a credit to attract a buyer. However, buyers no longer have the vision, time, or desire to make these improvements.
Buyers no longer want your HGTV fixer-upper with the outdated kitchen, bathrooms, grey walls, and old carpet. But it isn’t just the cosmetics keeping buyers from purchasing homes. They want the mechanics of the house to be relatively new as well. From air conditioners to roofs, everything needs to be updated. If a major component is “at the end of its life”, expect to replace it to attract a buyer. Offering a credit will no longer solve this problem.
Move-in-ready today means they buy the home, move in without lifting a finger or spending a dime, and are completely happy with all of the cosmetics and mechanics of the house.
Fix-and-flip investors know this best! They are buying dated homes, making improvements, and reaping the financial rewards.
The National Association of Realtors recently released its annual “Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report”. Below are a few of the demographics impacting the real estate market.
The average home sold in March was a 3-bedroom, 2-bath with 1900SF for $550,000. Typically, this segment of the housing market is not significantly impacted by the turmoil of the stock market. However, they are strongly impacted by mortgage interest rates and overall affordability.
Mortgage rates have come down slightly over the past few weeks, but not necessarily enough to cause a rush of buyer activity. It has been 2.5 years since rates went above 7%. A lot can happen in 2.5 years – births, deaths, marriage, divorce, work, and/or retirement are just some of the lifestyle changes that can cause people to need to make a move. If you need to make a change, 2.5 years is a long time to wait!
During this same time, home values have stagnated and slightly decreased in Tampa Bay. Somewhat stable pricing and reasonable mortgage rates, combined with more time to make a decision and more options to choose from, have caused buyers to reenter the market.
We are seeing the biggest impact on the luxury home market.
Affluent buyers and sellers are much more sensitive to the stock market rollercoaster. Luxury and ultra-luxury homes are taking longer to sell. Locally listing agents and sellers are experiencing a substantial decrease in activity, showings, and contracts.
When interest rates jumped from 3% to nearly 8% in the summer of 2022, it had very little to no impact on the luxury market. Yet, it had a substantial impact on our average home buyer and seller. This could be seen in the low absorption rate of homes and the increase in inventory.
According to an article by Yahoo! Finance in 2024, “The top 10% of Americans held 93% of all stocks, the highest level ever recorded.” While the “bottom 50% of Americans held just 1% of all stocks in the third quarter of 2023.”
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that wealthy homebuyers are backing out of multimillion-dollar home deals. This is due to the impact the tariff announcements are having on the stock market.
The article covered luxury home purchases from New York, Palm Beach, Fla., Los Angeles to Aspen, Colo. Most of the properties ranged from 10 million to 65 million dollars.
This isn’t really our market in Tampa Bay, but we have there are a few of them out there.
Currently, there are 19 properties listed for sale above 10 million in Tampa Bay, with the most expensive being a 5-acre lake-front estate in Odessa that is priced at $38.5 million. Interestingly enough, the home was put on the market on April 1st, the day before “liberation day”.
Since the pandemic, Tampa Bay has benefited from multiple Fortune 500 businesses relocating to our area. This has caused a surge in luxury home sales with the high-earning executives moving into the area. But things have started to slow down. In the past year, Tampa-St.Pete-Clearwater has had only 3 property sales in the 10m+ range. The previous year, there were 8 sales in this price point.
All of this to say, we are not in the ranks of the ultra-luxury markets experiencing wealthy buyers backing out of contracts due to the stock market volatility. However, it is affecting our luxury home sales. These homes are sitting on the market longer with very few showings.
Like you, I’m tired of talking about flood-damaged properties, but unfortunately, it is still part of our local reality. The devastation from Hurricane Helene and Milton has caused our sales prices to drop and inventory to skyrocket. The questions remain: how is it impacting our market, and for how long?
Flood-damaged homes can not be purchased with a conventional loan unless they have been fully remodeled. Traditional banks will not lend money on homes that do not have drywall, cabinets, and appliances. Therefore, the number of cash purchases is also up.
For this segment of the report, I focused on Pinellas County, where the majority of the damage was done. Also, the numbers below represent sold single-family homes in a flood zone built prior to 2002. This year is significant as it is when Florida Building Code integrated elevation requirements.
Prices are still being impacted by flood-damaged homes.
The full effects of tariffs on inflation and the housing market will become clear in the next few months. Subscribe to our YouTube channel so you will be notified when our most updated information is released.
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