Opportunities and Insights of Tampa Bay's Slow Real Estate Market

What’s really happening in our local Tampa Bay Real Estate Market?

The Tampa Bay Real Estate market has been consistently slow over the past several months, creating a unique opportunity to delve deeper into the current trends and make informed decisions. In this month’s market update, we explore the slow-moving Tampa Bay real estate landscape, where many potential buyers and sellers are sitting on the fence, waiting for the right moment to act. Despite this cautious atmosphere, there are still valuable opportunities to seize.

If you’re reading this month’s Market Report, chances are you’re evaluating your next move—whether it’s selling your home, buying a new one, or assessing your property’s worth. We’ll dive into those topics, but first, let’s take a closer look at the latest Tampa Bay real estate statistics, provided by our local Board of Realtors.

Tampa Bay's Market Report

Let’s break down the numbers from the most recent statistics to give some perspective. Here is what happened in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties in July 2024.

Pinellas County (St. Petersburg/Clearwater)

There were 868 single-family homes sold with an average sales price of $641,797. This is up 5% from last year but down from June’s average price of $688,506
It is still a Seller’s Market. The month’s supply of inventory was 3.8 months. A balanced market is a 6-month supply and a Buyer’s Market is more than 6 month’s supply of inventory. The median time to sell a home was 67 days.
The percentage of homes purchased with cash remained unchanged at 33%.
Buyer demand, represented as Absorption Rate, remains at a record low. Only 28% of the active listing inventory sold in the month of July. This is the lowest I’ve seen in over 20 years.
The condo market might be starting to stabilize. There was a slight drop in inventory month-over-month. Prices remained flat from a year ago. There is a 6-month supply of condo inventory.

Hillsborough County (Tampa)

There were 1452 single-family homes sold with an average price of $414,052. This price is flat compared to last year and up from June’s average of $408,187.
With a 3.4 month’s supply of inventory, Hillsborough County is still in a Seller’s Market. The median time to sell a home was 66 days.
Buyer demand was slightly better in Hillsborough with a 34% Absorption Rate.
Only 19% of homes were purchased with cash.
The average price of condos was still skewed in July by the recent sales of completed projects at The Ritz-Carlton Residences and Altura Bayshore. The average sales price of condos is up 28.4% year-over-year.

Should You Sell Your Home?

There is a difference between need and want. Over the last 2 years, home sellers wanted to capture the double-digit appreciation gains seen in 2021 and 2022. However, the time of testing the market has come and gone with extremely low interest rates. Year-over-year appreciation gains have returned to the 3-4% historical average. Those who wanted to sell are now taking their homes off the market. We’ve seen 30% of sellers cancel their property listings. Most do not need to sell and are waiting to see what happens after the elections.

The need to sell is typically due to a change in work or family situations. If you need to sell a home in this market, you have more competition and very little buyer demand. Active inventory in Pinellas County is up 7% compared to July 2019 and a whopping 111% compared to July 2023. Making necessary repairs, proper staging, a competitive marketing strategy, and a custom marketing plan are crucial to have your home stand out among the crowd.

If you have a stand-out home and a stand-out market strategy, your home will sell quickly at the right price!

Should You Buy a Home?

If you’re a buyer in today’s market, you’re in a powerful position. Interest rates are beginning to drop, and while it may not be a full-fledged Buyer’s Market, you have negotiation power. It might not be a technical Buyer’s Market but now is the ideal time to negotiate the price and ask for incentives and/or credits.

Here are other reasons to buy a home in today’s market:

Buyers have time to make informed decisions. If you are considering purchasing a home, you have time to visit the home a few times to ensure it is the right fit for your needs.
The average 30-year fixed rate has dropped to 6.4% and is expected to drop lower in the coming days.
Homeownership is still the best way to create wealth. The median net worth for a homeowner in 2022 was $396,200, versus just $10,400 for renters.

For the past two years, buyers have been waiting for interest rates to drop, creating pent-up demand. Once interest rates are lowered your negotiation power will decrease and time will not be in your favor. Don’t wait for the herd. Be ahead of the pack.

What Happened To Your Property Value?

Remember, “It’s not about timing the market, but about time in the market.” We have not seen a decline in property values and we do not expect to see one. Property appreciation has returned to the historic average of 3-4% annual appreciation.

If you’re curious about your home’s current value, we’re here to help you get an accurate estimate. You can visit our home evaluation site here or call us directly to discuss.

What to Expect in the Coming Months?

The current pace of the market might have slowed, but the potential for a resurgence is on the horizon.

Even though the great migration has ceased, Tampa Bay continues to attract new residents. According to a recent article in the Tampa Bay Business Journal, roughly 28,000 new residents moved into Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties in 2023. Yet, the number of residential units sold was down 14% during this period.

It is hard to find the net of new residents who have moved to Tampa Bay since 2019. However, there is one thing we can all agree on; Tampa Bay has been a hot spot for relocation over the past few years.

Knowing this, it should surprise you to learn that there was a 31% decrease in the number of residential units sold in 2023 compared to 2019! Tremendous population growth yet 31% fewer homes sold!

This begs the question, where is everyone living? Are they all renting and for how long? Numerous home buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting to pounce. While older condominiums might face challenges, single-family homes, townhomes, and newer condos are poised for a strong comeback.

Want to Talk Real Estate?

From market shifts to new policies like the Buyer Broker Agreement, the real estate market is always evolving. If you need a sounding board or have questions, rely on us for the answers. With over 20 years of experience selling real estate in Tampa Bay, I’m passionate about the industry and look forward to your call. Please reach out directly at (727)742-7939.